Towards Net Zero: Infrastructure, Policy, and Adoption Gaps in Africa’s Energy Transition Journey

Contributor: Cyril Dandison

Introduction

The global push towards net-zero emissions has placed energy transition at the heart of national development strategies, especially for countries striving to balance climate goals with economic realities. In Africa, this balance is particularly delicate. Nowhere is this tension more evident than in Nigeria and South Africa, the continent’s two largest economies, where the race to decarbonise is entangled with long-standing infrastructure deficits, socio-economic pressures, and governance limitations.^[1]

For both nations, energy is not just a resource; it is the backbone of industrialisation, urbanisation, and livelihoods. Yet, the transition away from fossil fuels toward cleaner, sustainable energy sources presents daunting challenges. In South Africa, where coal still dominates electricity generation, the government has taken significant steps by launching the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JET-P) and its corresponding Investment Plan (JET-IP), supported by multilateral climate finance. However, despite these bold moves, structural issues such as load-shedding, regulatory gaps, and affordability remain unresolved.^[2]

Similarly, Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan (ETP) seeks to simultaneously address energy poverty and environmental sustainability, with a projected cost of US$1.9 trillion by 2060. Despite notable initiatives, including the roll-out of solar projects, compressed natural gas (CNG) schemes, and a legislative framework through the Climate Change Act, the nation grapples with dilapidated infrastructure, limited financing capacity, and questions around the inclusivity and pace of its transition.^[3]

This article focuses on Nigeria and South Africa as case studies in Africa’s energy transition discourse. It explores the gaps in infrastructure, policy design, and technology adoption that continue to slow the realisation of their climate commitments. In doing so, it highlights the need for a pragmatic and context-specific approach, one that goes beyond global pledges to confront the continent’s unique development challenges.

Infrastructure: The Weight of a Carbon Legacy

The road to net zero in both Nigeria and South Africa is heavily burdened by decades of fossil-fuel-dependent infrastructure. While energy transition is a climate imperative, it cannot be pursued in a vacuum from the physical realities on ground.

In Nigeria, the energy infrastructure is historically underdeveloped, underfunded, and overwhelmingly tied to fossil fuels. Over 80% of electricity generation comes from gas-fired power plants, while the transmission and distribution systems remain weak, unreliable, and largely inefficient. Many of the national assets, such as roads, power lines, and refineries, were not built with clean energy integration in mind. Transitioning such infrastructure to support solar farms, battery storage systems, and electric mobility would require massive capital outlays, skilled manpower, and time. The country estimates that US$3 trillion is needed to overhaul its infrastructure over 30 years, a sum that dwarfs its $1.9 trillion energy transition budget.^[4]

Conversely, South Africa has a more advanced but equally problematic infrastructure. The country’s heavy reliance on coal-fired power, accounting for nearly 85% of electricity generation, has left a legacy of ageing plants, poor air quality, and high emissions. While its National Infrastructure Plan 2050 and Integrated Resource Plans signal a shift toward renewables, rolling blackouts and system instabilities persist. The transmission grid, although relatively modern, still requires significant expansion and modernisation to accommodate decentralised renewable sources such as solar and wind.^[5]

Both countries face a similar dilemma: how to retrofit or rebuild infrastructure for a green economy without disrupting already fragile systems. Without clear strategies to make infrastructure climate-resilient and future-proof, their net-zero ambitions may remain aspirational.

2. Policy Frameworks: Promising on Paper, Shaky in Practice

Both Nigeria and South Africa have, in recent years, introduced robust energy transition frameworks. However, the gap between policy articulation and actual implementation remains wide.

Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan (ETP), unveiled in 2021, outlines a roadmap toward achieving net-zero emissions by 2060, with intermediate targets such as 10% biofuel blends by 2030 and full electric vehicle (EV) adoption by 2060. Backed by legislation through the Climate Change Act 2021 and institutionalised via the Energy Transition Office (ETO), the plan presents an ambitious agenda. Yet, weak policy enforcement, overlapping regulatory jurisdictions, and a lack of budgetary alignment continue to hinder execution. The absence of integrated sectoral planning also means that some policies, especially around clean cooking, gas commercialisation, and e-mobility, operate in silos.^[6]

South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET-IP), developed with support from the US, UK, EU, and others, is arguably more advanced in form and funding. With US$8.5 billion pledged in concessional finance, the plan emphasises a socially equitable transition, particularly crucial for a coal-dependent economy with thousands of jobs at stake. The use of a “just transition” lens is progressive. However, challenges remain in disbursing funds, coordinating municipal and national efforts, and ensuring long-term ownership beyond external donor support. Furthermore, South Africa’s regulatory instruments, like the Renewable Energy Feed-In Tariff (REFIT) and tax incentives for renewables, have been slow to scale up private sector participation at the pace needed.^[7]

Ultimately, while both countries possess commendable plans, their policy frameworks require stronger political will, clearer implementation pathways, and continuous stakeholder engagement to translate vision into action.

Technology Adoption and Social Acceptance: The Missing Link

Technological readiness and societal buy-in are vital to any successful transition. However, both countries face critical gaps in digital infrastructure, public awareness, and affordability.

In Nigeria, internet penetration stands at 45.5%, which, while growing, reveals a digital divide that could limit the scalability of smart grids, digital metering, and data-driven energy systems. The high cost of renewable technologies, coupled with poverty and inflation, makes adoption inaccessible for the majority. Clean cooking solutions, electric vehicles, or even rooftop solar systems remain out of reach for many low-income households. Moreover, public education on the benefits of transitioning to cleaner fuels is minimal, weakening behavioural change.^[8]

South Africa, with 68.2% internet penetration, fares better in terms of digital maturity. The country is actively exploring smart technologies for energy management, particularly in urban centres. Still, affordability remains a stumbling block, particularly for poorer communities. Although the JET-IP emphasises inclusivity, rolling out clean energy alternatives in historically marginalised areas without deep engagement could lead to resistance or apathy. Equally important is the issue of skills: both countries need to rapidly develop technical expertise in areas such as battery technology, solar engineering, and energy efficiency to meet their transition needs.^[9]

Thus, the transition challenge is not just one of policy and capital, but of people, how prepared they are to adopt new energy systems and how well governments communicate the economic and health benefits of doing so.

Conclusion

Nigeria and South Africa are navigating a complex path toward net zero, one marked by commendable ambition but constrained by legacy infrastructure, fragmented policy execution, and limited grassroots adoption. While both nations have developed structured energy transition plans, Nigeria through its ETP and South Africa via the JET-IP, the success of these plans rests not only on external funding and technical capacity, but also on sustained domestic reforms, local innovation, and inclusive governance.

The journey toward net zero must therefore go beyond ticking off climate obligations. It must embrace a just, locally attuned strategy, one that aligns decarbonization with economic opportunity, energy access, and national development goals. Without addressing the underlying gaps in infrastructure, policy coordination, and adoption readiness, Africa’s energy transition risks becoming a tale of well-written documents but missed opportunities.

REFERENCE

1. F. Adeniyi, & A. Isah ‘Unlocking renewables amid rentierism: Market constraints to Nigeria’s energy transition’ (2023) Vol 104 Energy Research & Social Science Available @ https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629623003080 accessed 23rd June, 2025. ↑
2. Ibid ↑
3. Ibid ↑
4. National Resource Governance Institute, ‘Power to the People: Perspective on Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan’ (2024) Available @ https://resourcegovernance.org/taxonomy/term/434 accessed 23rd June, 2025. ↑
5. Mo Ibrahim Foundation, ‘Addressing Africa’s energy deficit: gas, renewables, and climate change’ Available @ https://mo.ibrahim.foundation/sites/default/files/2022-09/energy-transition.pdf accessed 23rd June, 2025. ↑
6. Sustainable Energy for All, ‘Nigeria Energy Transition and Investment Plan’ Available @ https://www.seforall.org/our-work/initiatives-projects/energy-transition-plans/nigeria accessed 23^rd June 2025; ↑
7. Presidential Climate Condition, “South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET-IP) Full Document”Available @ https://www.climatecommission.org.za/publications/sa-jet-ip accessed 23^rd June 2025; Official Site of South Africa Government ‘Highlights of the State of the Nation Address 2022 – Infrastructure development’ Available @ https://www.gov.za/SONA2022-highlights-infrastructure-development accessed 23^rd June 2025 ↑
8. R. Adeleke, ‘Digital divide in Nigeria: The role of regional differentials’ (2020) Vol African Journal of Science Technology Innovation and Development Available @ https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341371706_Digital_divide_in_Nigeria_The_role_of_regional_differentials accessed 23rd June, 2025 ↑
9. Ibid ↑